Just when we thought the number of homes for sale in the North County and San Diego real estate markets couldn’t go any lower, it has. Normally as we enter spring, inventory starts to move up. This year it has dropped. This is putting more pressure on an already red-hot market.
Continue reading April 2021 North County and San Diego Real Estate Markets
Last year we couldn’t find toilet paper to buy. This year we can’t find homes. In December, the North County and San Diego real estate markets had the fewest homes for sale we’ve seen since December 2001. To make things worse, the situation didn’t improve in January or February. This incredibly tight inventory combined with historically low interest rates and a lot of pent-up demand has created a red-hot market.
Continue reading March 2021 North County and San Diego Real Estate Markets
The North County and San Diego markets remained very tight in January. There were few new listings and very little existing inventory. Continued low interest rates and pent-up demand are keeping buyers in the market.
These factors are pushing up home prices. In fact, the S & P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices show that in November, we had the highest monthly price gains we’ve seen in six years. And they expect pressure on prices to continue for at least the first six months of 2021.
The year-over median price was up 14.2 percent in North County and 9.2 percent in San Diego County overall. New listings dropped sharply, but while North County saw fewer pending and closed sales compared to the previous year, the county as a whole had increases in both. Supply remained very low in all areas with less than one month’s inventory. This continues to make the market a great one for home sellers and a difficult one for home buyers.
See below for this month’s statistics and daily interest rate updates.
Continue reading February 2021 North County and San Diego Real Estate Markets
The October North County and San Diego real estate markets both saw 15 percent, year-over price increases. Paired with strong price growth were steep decreases in available inventory and days on market compared to the previous year.
Historically low interest rates paired with very little inventory and pent-up demand are forcing prices up quickly. If we see more inventory coming on the market or an increase in interest rates, those price increases should slow down.
The California Association of Realtors 2021 Housing Market Forecast projects that interest rates will stay just above three percent next year. But inventory may start to increase with the recent passing of Proposition 19.
Proposition 19 will allow homeowners who are over 55, severely disabled or those whose homes were destroyed by wildfire or disaster to transfer the tax base value of their primary residence to a replacement residence of any value, anywhere in the state. This may help motivate some homeowners to make a move.
Both North County and San Diego County as a whole saw strong, year-over, median price gains of over 15 percent. Inventory dropped compared to last year by approximately 48 percent. Year-over market times were significantly shorter. North County saw increases in new listings, pending sales and closed sales while San Diego County as a whole had more pending sales but fewer new listings and closed sales.
See below for this month’s statistics and daily interest rate updates.
Continue reading October 2020 North County and San Diego Real Estate Markets
September North County and San Diego real estate markets are still strong. If you’re thinking of selling, the time is right. If you’re looking to buy, it is the best of times, and it is the worst of times. Buyers can take advantage of historically low interest rates, but are being thwarted by the lack of inventory.
Is the market likely to change soon? Experts predict the real estate market will remain strong throughout 2020, but some think we may see a slowdown in 2021. Mortgage lenders expect home loan rates to remain low, perhaps through 2021. But they do caution that with a COVID vaccine or possible inflation, we will see interest rates rise.
Both North County and San Diego County as a whole saw strong, year-over, median price gains of 12.6 and 11.9 percent respectively. Inventory dropped compared to last year by approximately 50 percent. Year-over market times were significantly shorter, and while we saw a drop in new listings, pending sales increased by approximately 25 percent.
See below for this month’s statistics and daily interest rate updates.
Continue reading September 2020 North County and San Diego Real Estate Markets
The August North County and San Diego real estate markets showed strong, year-over median price increases last month. Pent up buyer demand, historically low interest rates and continued inventory shortages are all keeping pressure on home prices, despite the impact of COVID-19.
Those low interest rates are also motivating homeowners to refinance. If you have already refinanced your home, you are lucky to have missed the 0.5 percent “adverse market fee” on all refinances that was just announced by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). Freddie Mac said this new fee is going into effect as of September 1 “as a result of risk management and loss forecasting precipitated by COVID-19 related economic and market uncertainty.” If you’d like more information about this new refinance fee, please contact me.
Year-over, median prices were up 10.3 percent countywide and 11.1 percent in North County. Inventory dropped by about one-half compared to the previous year, and market times were shorter. The number of new listings dropped while pending sales increased in both markets.
See below for this month’s statistics and daily interest rate updates.
Continue reading August 2020 North County and San Diego Real Estate Markets
We are continuing to see tight inventory and short market times in North County and San Diego real estate markets this July. Bidding wars are commonplace. But experts predict a slowing market in months to come. CoreLogic’s Home Price Insights report forecasts a year-over decline of 6.6 percent in home prices nationally. Though in San Diego, they estimate that drop to only be 1.3 percent.
Although prices are expected to soften slightly, it’s doubtful we will see many foreclosures due to COVID-19. This market is very different than it was during the Great Recession. Inventory is scarce. Homeowners have equity, and mortgage delinquency rates in San Diego County are very low compared to the rest of the country. The San Diego Union Tribune recently published a good explanation of why large numbers of foreclosures are probably not in our future.
Of all the markets within the county, North County is the only one that saw a year-over decrease in prices with the median sales price dropping 2.5 percent. Countywide, year-over prices were up 2.4 percent. Inventory dropped by almost 50 percent in both markets, and pending sales were up over 20 percent compared to the previous year.
See below for this month’s statistics and daily interest rate updates.
Continue reading July 2020 North County and San Diego Real Estate Markets
As the economy opens up, we are seeing the June North County and San Diego real estate markets do the same. Pending sales and new listings are moving back up, although inventory is still very low.
This lack of inventory, low interest rates and high demand from millennials is keeping our market stable. And with the Fed’s recent announcement that they will continue to buy mortgage-backed securities, experts predict that mortgage rates will continue to remain low.
Year-over prices were up 2.2 percent countywide and 0.5 percent in North County. Inventory was still down 36 to 37 percent compared to last May, and market times were shorter. There were 26 percent fewer new listings. Pending sales were 6 to 8 percent lower than last year, but that’s a big improvement over April’s 40 percent drop, and an indicator that buyers are coming back to the market more quickly than sellers.
See below for this month’s statistics and daily interest rate updates.
Continue reading June 2020 North County and San Diego Real Estate Markets
Traditionally, spring is one of the busiest times of the year for real estate. However, the coronavirus outbreak and subsequent stay-at-home orders led many buyers and sellers to put their moving plans on hold. In April, new listings fell nearly 45%, and sales volume fell 15% compared to last year.
Fortunately, as restrictions have eased, we’ve seen an uptick in market activity. And economists at Realtor.com expect a rebound in July, August, and September, as fears about the pandemic subside, and buyers return to the market with pent-up demand from a lost spring season.
But given safety concerns and the current economic climate, is it prudent to jump back into the real estate market?
Continue reading What’s Ahead for Real Estate?
We have seen a significant drop in the number of homes selling in the North County and San Diego real estate markets due to COVID-19, but in April as in March, there was also a large decrease in active and new listings. In addition, the number of homes that are going under contract (pending) has increased quite a bit since the beginning of April as you can see in the chart below.
This is keeping the real estate market very competitive, especially with entry-level homes. Many homes are seeing multiple offers. They are selling more quickly and at a higher sales price to list price ratio than they were at the same time last year.
Does this mean that our real estate market will see no effect from COVID-19? Not necessarily. The Mortgage Bankers Association reports that as of May 10, 2020, slightly over 8 percent of loans nationwide were in forbearance. The San Diego and North County markets could be adversely affected by this, but most likely we won’t know what those effects are until 2021. And because there are so few homes available to purchase, the consequences may be minimal.
Year-over prices were up 4.3 percent countywide and 6.3 percent in North County. Inventory dropped by about one-third compared to the previous year, and market times were 31 percent shorter. New listings and pending sales all dropped by over 40 percent in both markets.
See below for this month’s statistics and daily interest rate updates.
Continue reading May 2020 North County and San Diego Real Estate Markets